Ammunition prices are not coming down, and fifty years of ammo price history says they almost never do. In forty-nine years of the government’s own producer price index for small arms ammunition, the price of making ammunition rose in forty-two of those years and fell in seven, and the deepest fall in half a century was 3.2 percent. What that means in practice is that timing the market barely matters and choosing the cartridge matters enormously: today a round of .22 LR costs 6.59 cents and a round of .50 BMG costs 389.50, a spread of fifty-nine times across the same shelf on the same day. The median across the twenty case lots I track sits in the table below, which carries the date it was last read.
Priced by the site itself, several times a day Case-lot prices are read off individual product pages by the site itself, several times a day; the table below carries the date of its most recent reading. The federal index below carries its own date: its last published reading is June 2025.
The short version. Two separate records of ammo price history sit on this page and they agree. The federal producer price index for small arms ammunition ran from 50.3 in December 1975 to 331.1 in June 2025, its highest reading on record, and it has fallen year over year in only seven of forty-nine comparisons. My own shelf record did not move at all between 22 August and 15 September: the same case of 9mm printed $269.80 on all three dates it was read. Nothing in either record supports waiting for a crash.
What a case lot costs today
The number to quote. Twenty cartridges, the cheapest brass-case case lot SGAmmo had in stock for each, read off each one’s own product page by the site several times a day. The table below carries the median and the date it was last read.
One store, on purpose. Every price in this table comes from a single retailer, SGAmmo. It is not a survey of the market and it is not the lowest price anywhere: another store may be cheaper on a given day. What it gives you is the same seller, read the same way every day, so when a number moves, the price moved, not the store.
| Cartridge | Per round | Against the 51.49¢ median | Case price | Case | Load checked | Stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .22 LR | 6.59¢ | well under — -87% | $329.50 | 5,000 rd | 5000 Round Case - 22 LR 40 Grain Black Copper Coated Projectile Winchester Target & Plinking Ammo - ZUSA22LR | 25+ in stock |
| 9mm Luger | 26.98¢ | well under — -48% | $269.80 | 1,000 rd | 1000 Round Case - 9mm Luger 115 Grain FMJ Ammo by Magtech - 9A | 25+ in stock |
| .380 ACP | 34.98¢ | well under — -32% | $349.80 | 1,000 rd | 1000 Round Case - 380 Auto 95 Grain FMJ Federal Champion Brass Ammo - C38095A | 25+ in stock |
| .40 S&W | 35.90¢ | well under — -30% | $359.00 | 1,000 rd | 1000 Round Case - 40 Cal PMC 165 Grain FMJ Ammo - 40D | 25+ in stock |
| .45 ACP | 41.90¢ | well under — -19% | $419.00 | 1,000 rd | 1000 Round Case - 45 Auto 230 Grain FMJ Federal Champion Brass Case Ammo - WM5233 | 25+ in stock |
| 10mm Auto | 41.90¢ | well under — -19% | $419.00 | 1,000 rd | 1000 Round Case - 10mm Auto 180 Grain FMJ Ammo by Magtech - 10A | 25+ in stock |
| 12 Gauge | 43.80¢ | under — -15% | $109.50 | 250 rd | 250 Round Case - 12 Gauge 2.75 Inch 1-1/8 Ounce Number 8 Shot Winchester Super Target Ammo - TRGT128 | 24 in stock |
| .38 Special | 43.90¢ | under — -15% | $439.00 | 1,000 rd | 1000 Round Case - 38 Special 132 Grain FMJ PMC Ammo - 38G | 25+ in stock |
| 5.56 NATO / .223 | 44.95¢ | under — -13% | $449.50 | 1,000 rd | 1000 Round Case - 223 Rem PMC 55 Grain FMJ-BT Brass Case Ammo - 223A | 25+ in stock |
| 5.7×28 | 48.00¢ | under — -7% | $479.95 | 1,000 rd | 1000 Round Can - 5.7x28 40 Grain TMJ or FMJ Federal Ammo - AE5728A - Packed in M19A1 Canister | 10 in stock |
| .357 Magnum | 54.98¢ | over — +7% | $549.80 | 1,000 rd | 1000 Round Case - 357 Magnum PMC 158 Grain Jacketed Soft Point Ammo - 357A | 25+ in stock |
| 7.62×39 | 60.00¢ | well over — +17% | $504.00 | 840 rd | 840 Round Case - 7.62x39 123 Grain FMJ Brass Case Boxer Primed Non-Magnetic M67 Mil-Spec Ammo Made by Igman | 25+ in stock |
| .300 Blackout | 65.98¢ | well over — +28% | $659.80 | 1,000 rd | 1000 Round Case - 300 Blackout 123 Grain FMJ Magtech Ammo - 300BLKB | 25+ in stock |
| 350 Legend | 74.75¢ | well over — +45% | $149.50 | 200 rd | 200 Round Case - 350 Legend 145 Grain FMJ Winchester Ammo - USA3501 | 25+ in stock |
| .308 Win / 7.62×51 | 84.95¢ | well over — +65% | $849.50 | 1,000 rd | 1000 Rounds - .308 Win 147 Grain FMJ Saltech Swiss Precision Range Ammo | 25+ in stock |
| 6.5 Creedmoor | 89.75¢ | well over — +74% | $448.75 | 500 rd | 500 Round Case - 6.5 Creedmoor 140 Grain FMJ BT Ammo by Sellier Bellot - SB65A | 14 in stock |
| .30-30 Win | 99.75¢ | well over — +94% | $498.75 | 500 rd | 500 Round Case - 30-30 Win 150 Grain Flat Nose Soft Point Sellier Bellot Hunting Ammo - SB3030A | 13 in stock |
| .30-06 Springfield | 104.75¢ | well over — +103% | $209.50 | 200 rd | 200 Round Case - 30-06 Springfield Winchester Mil-Spec 147 Grain FMJ Ammo - USA3006 | 25+ in stock |
| 45-70 Govt | 169.75¢ | well over — +230% | $407.40 | 240 rd | 240 Round Case - 45-70 Govt. 405 Grain Soft Point Sellier & Bellot Ammo - SB4570A | 25+ in stock |
| .50 BMG | 389.50¢ | well over — +656% | $779.00 | 200 rd | 200 Round Case - 50 BMG PMC Target 660 Grain FMJ M33 Ball Ammo - 50A | 25+ in stock |
| Median of the twenty | 51.49¢ | — | — | — | — | — |
Every figure above was read from that product’s own page, never a category listing. Steel-case lots are cheaper and I track them, but the benchmark is always brass: a benchmark that hops from brass to steel shows a price drop that is really a change of product.
Work out what your own order costs
Pick a cartridge and a number of rounds. Nothing is estimated and nothing is asked of you first.
What will this cost me?
Choose a cartridge to see the cost.
What did you actually pay?
The national figures above come from the federal record and from online sellers. Nobody publishes what people pay at the counter. Tell us what your last box or case cost and we will work out the price per round, so the next reader can see whether they are being asked a fair price.
Ammo price history: what the federal record shows over fifty years
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has published a producer price index for small arms ammunition manufacturing since December 1975. It measures what ammunition costs to make at the factory gate rather than at the till, so no retailer’s promotions move it. Its last reading, June 2025, is 331.1 — the series high.
The figures behind that line:
| June | Index | Change since the row above |
|---|---|---|
| 1976 | 50.8 | — |
| 1985 | 100.0 | +96.9% |
| 1995 | 118.2 | +18.2% |
| 2005 | 124.9 | +5.7% |
| 2015 | 242.6 | +94.2% |
| 2025 | 331.1 | +36.5% |
Three things matter more than the headline. It rose in forty-two of forty-nine June-to-June comparisons. The deepest annual fall in fifty years was 3.2 percent, in 1987, and the deepest fall over any twelve-month window was 6.8 percent, ending September 1982. Both violent moves were upward: 31.9 percent to November 2007, and 29.1 percent across 2008. Ammunition prices climb in steps and then sit still.
One caution on this series
The federal index stopped at June 2025. It is right for the long-run shape and wrong for this month, which is why the shelf prices above are collected here rather than taken from it.
Has anything actually moved since August?
No, and I can show it. The August 2026 edition of The Ammo Record was frozen on 22 August. Two of its loads are the same product from the same retailer I still track:
| Case lot | Price on 22 Aug, 11 Sep and 15 Sep 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 9mm Magtech 9A, 1,000 rounds | $269.80 — 26.98¢ a round, all three dates | none |
| .22 LR Winchester Target & Plinking, 5,000 rounds | $329.50 — 6.59¢ a round, all three dates | none |
Across all twelve cartridges I was tracking on 11 September, every per-round figure on 15 September was identical. That is the honest state of the shelf: flat, at a high level.
What I am not going to tell you
The August edition listed 5.56 at 47.0 cents; the figure above is 44.95. That is not a price cut. August’s benchmark was PMC X-TAC XP193, September’s is PMC 223A — a different load. Comparing them would manufacture a 4 percent fall that never happened. The per-cartridge record here begins 11 September 2026, and I will not draw a line through points I cannot stand behind.
The formula, and a worked example
Price per round is what you actually pay divided by the rounds in the box:
Price per round = (case price × (1 + tax rate) + shipping) ÷ rounds in the case
Most published figures drop shipping and tax, which is where they cheat — but on a case lot the error usually runs the other way. This 9mm case is $269.80, which clears SGAmmo’s published $200 free-shipping line, so shipping adds nothing and tax is the whole of it. Worked by hand at 7 percent tax, using the same formula as the cost per round calculator:
| Step | Figure |
|---|---|
| Case price, 1,000 rounds of Magtech 9A | $269.80 |
| Shipping, over SGAmmo’s published $200 free-shipping line | $0.00 |
| Sales tax at 7 percent ($269.80 × 0.07) | $18.89 |
| Total paid | $288.69 |
| Divided by 1,000 rounds | 28.87¢ a round |
| Sticker price per round, for comparison | 26.98¢ a round |
| What shipping and tax added | 1.89¢ a round, or 7.0 percent |
Seven percent is the number to remember: sales tax alone on a case that ships free, already more than the deepest twelve-month fall in the federal index in fifty years. The tax and any shipping on your order matter more than the month you place it. For your own figures, use the cost per round calculator.
Questions and answers
Are ammunition prices going up?
Over any period longer than a year, yes. The federal index rose from 50.3 in December 1975 to 331.1 in June 2025, and it rose in forty-two of the forty-nine June-to-June comparisons in between. Short term, prices are flat: every cartridge I was tracking on 11 September printed exactly the same price on 15 September.
Is ammunition cheap right now?
Not historically. The last federal reading, June 2025, was the highest in the series and 31.6 percent above June 2019. On the shelf the cheap cartridges are still genuinely cheap: .22 LR at 6.59 cents and 9mm at 26.98 cents a round both sit far below the median in the table above.
Should I wait for prices to fall?
The record does not reward waiting. In fifty years of federal data the deepest twelve-month fall was 6.8 percent — about what sales tax alone adds to a case that ships free. The bigger lever is the cartridge: a thousand rounds of 9mm is $269.80, a thousand rounds of 6.5 Creedmoor is $897.50 — $627.70 apart on one order. This describes what the price record shows and is not financial advice.
Why is ammunition expensive if there is no shortage?
Input costs and tariffs, not scarcity. Sources in the Ammo Shortage Tracker.
Where do these prices come from?
Each is read from that product’s own page at SGAmmo, the one retailer this table reads, on the date beside it, never from a category listing. The benchmark is always a brass-case case lot, and training rounds, plastic and frangible bullets, blanks, corrosive surplus, primers, powder and components are excluded. Full method: How I Get These Numbers.
Can I use these figures on my own site?
Yes, with attribution and a link to Popular Ammo. The “Embed this” button gives you the code and the button under each table gives you the data.
Who checked this, and when
I am James Nicholas. I hold an FFL and an 07/02 manufacturing license, and I have been behind the counter for over 20 years. All twenty case-lot prices are read off their own product pages at SGAmmo by the site itself, several times a day, on the method I set; the federal index is pulled from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Sources
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by Industry: Small Arms Ammunition Manufacturing, series PCU332992332992, monthly, December 1975 to June 2025, via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU332992332992
- SGAmmo individual product pages for all twenty case lots, re-read several times a day, each named in the table above.
- The Ammo Record, August 2026 edition, frozen 22 August 2026.
Related reading
- Cost per round calculator — adds shipping and tax.
- Reloading cost calculator — with the break-even.
- Ammo Shortage Tracker — current stock, and why prices are high.
- Caliber comparison chart
- All Popular Ammo tools — every calculator and chart on the site.